Estimate annual demand for bike-sharing fleet size in Bangalore

Estimate the optimal total fleet size of dockless electric micro-mobility two-wheelers (smart e-bikes) required to service first/last-mile transit demand in Bangalore, India.

Context

Bangalore has severe road traffic congestion and a rapidly expanding Namma Metro rail network with ~70 operational stations.

Clarifying questions to ask first

Are we sizing for shared dockless micro-mobility (Yulu-style low-speed EV) or full-speed rental scooters? (Low-speed micro-mobility EV).
Does this include vehicles undergoing battery charging and repair? (Yes, total active fleet).

How to approach it

Segment Target Demand Generators: Metro Commuters (first/last-mile transit from station to tech park/home), Tech Park Campuses, and Hyperlocal Gig Delivery Workers
Calculate Metro Commuter Volume: 700k daily metro riders -> 20% need last-mile transit = 140k daily trips
Add Gig Delivery Workers (Swiggy/Zomato/Blinkit): ~40k daily dedicated rental users
Apply Vehicle Utilization / Turn Rate (Average 4-5 trips per vehicle per day) to calculate required active fleet size + 15% buffer for maintenance/charging

Framework: Optimal Fleet Size = (Total Daily Micro-Mobility Trips / Daily Turn-Rate per Bike) × (1 + Maintenance/Battery Buffer %)

Sample answer

Daily Trip Demand:
- Metro Last-Mile Commuters: 700k riders × 20% adoption = 140,000 trips/day
- Tech Park / Student Local Trips: 30,000 trips/day
- Dedicated Gig Delivery Rider Shifts: 30,000 full-day bike rentals
Total Daily Trips / Shifts: ~200,000 trip-equivalents
Daily Turn Rate: Commuter bikes handle ~4.5 trips/day; delivery bikes handle 1 dedicated rider/day
Required Operating Vehicles = (170k / 4.5 = 37.7k) + 30k delivery = ~68,000 active bikes
Add 15% maintenance/charging buffer = ~78,000 total fleet size

Calculated total required fleet size: ~75,000 - 80,000 smart e-bikes across 70 metro clusters and major IT corridors

Executive estimate: ~75,000 to 80,000 electric shared bikes needed to fully service Bangalore (~$25M annual rental revenue; ~200k daily rides).

What interviewers look for

Metro Transit Demand Modeling
Gig Worker Fleet Demand
Vehicle Utilization Turn-Rate (Trips/Day)
Maintenance & Swapping Battery Buffer